Target Analysis - Accomplishing your mission through proper target selection

​Last week I talked about how we use the CARVER Matrix for target analysis in special operations.

But we can use it to select the optimal target for accomplishing our mission, whatever it may be.

We think in terms of:

System > Subsystem> Target > Method of attack

This might look like:

Power System > Hydro-electric Dam > Turbine > Explosives

But it could just as easily be:

Improve fitness > energy intake > caloric restriction > cut out snacks

Or

Improve fitness > energy expenditure > cardio > post-meal walk

In each of these examples, we might evaluate multiple systems, subsystems, targets, and attack methods using the CARVER Matrix to determine which offers the best chance for success.

C.A.R.V.E.R

We start with Criticality.

In special operations, we determine how critical the target is to the enemy.

For our purposes, we are asking how critical it is to how we view ourselves.

If you view yourself as a gym rat, you’ll have an easier time increasing your gym time than someone who views themselves as a runner.

If you believe breakfast is the most important meal of the day, morning intermittent fasting will be tough.

If you want to drop 20 lbs. you will probably consider three systems.

• Energy in (Eating)
• Energy out (Exercise)
• Energy replenishment (Sleep).

You will evaluate each item in the Matrix's criticality based on how critical the target is to your self-identity and assign a score of 1-5, with 1 being least critical and 5 being most critical.

Accessibility- Here we are asking, “How accessible is the target?”

If you are thinking of going to the gym but you don’t have a membership, time, or transportation, it’s not very accessible. It would probably get a 1.

Recoupability—In Target Analysis, we ask how quickly the enemy can restore the damaged target to working order.

For our purposes, let’s view recoupability as recouping the time it takes to implement the target. For example, if you decide to increase your sleep from 4 to 7 hours per night, how easily will you be able to recoup the three hours?

I have said this before: We all fill our 24 hours. Everything we want to add must come at the cost of something else. How hard will it be for you to make the time?

Vulnerability- How vulnerable is the target to attack? In my job, we give a high score to a vulnerable target. The easier it is the better.

For our purposes, we will reverse that. How likely will something get in the way of accomplishing your mission?

If you plan to stop drinking but you hang out in a bar every night, you are probably pretty vulnerable. I’d give it a 1.

Effect—How big of an impact will this target have, and how noticeable will it be? 1—Small impact 5—Big impact. If we have an ill-defined goal like “get in shape,” it will be hard to quantify its impact.

Establishing a target of reducing your daily caloric intake by 100 calories might be less venerable, but it will not have an immediate impact ( you would lose less than 1 lb. per month).

Finally, Recognizeability. In special operations, this means how easy it will be to identify the correct widget on which to place the explosives.

For us, identify how easy is it to identify that you have hit your target for the day.

If your target is to meditate for 10 minutes, you can easily set a timer, and, afterward, make an x on your Habit Tracker.

​Habit Tracker .pdf​

You do it or you don’t.

If your target is more nebulous, like "Eat less junk", you will have difficulty confirming whether you have succeeded.

Let’s go through this step by step:

• You give yourself the mission of getting into the best shape of your life in 2025. (System- fitness)
• Identify the sub-system to attack first. You pick energy-out (workouts)
• ID potential targets Weightlifting, Running, Swimming, Rucking (or some combination)

Use the matrix to evaluate potential attack methods.

In this case, Rucking is a pretty clear winner.

It won't always be that way, but by spending some time evaluating your possible targets, you will certainly stand a better chance of accomplishing your mission.

Here's a copy you can use for your own Target Analysis.

​Walking Point CARVER Matrix.pdf​

If you use the CARVER Matrix to select your next target, I'd love to hear about it. You can simply reply to this email.

Until next week

Keep Walking Point!

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