Have a bias for action.
I have often used a leadership exercise in which military leaders are given a situation and then listen to radio calls from a subordinate unit that is in contact with the enemy, providing further information.
When the leader feels they have enough information, they exit the room and write down the orders they will give.
Some leaders leave early.
Others wait until the last radio call, a final request for fire support, when it becomes too late to act.
In most cases, there is not much difference in the decision reached.
Some just reach it sooner with less complete information.
We call this a bias for action.
I know you’ve heard the saying. To assume is to make an ass of you and me. However, we make assumptions in military planning because we have to plan with incomplete information.
We define assumptions as beliefs or expectations about a situation that are not based on facts but are deemed reasonable for planning and execution. These are crucial for filling gaps in incomplete information and enabling adaptation to changing conditions.
As we gather more information, we reevaluate our assumptions and ensure they still hold, or change them as new information becomes available.
But with or without assumptions, we must make decisions- just like you do every day.
Although it can be tempting to delay deciding until we have all the information, it’s unlikely that we ever will.
This can lead to analysis paralysis. A reluctance to act because we may be wrong.
I recently read how Jeff Bezos classifies decisions as Type 1 or Type 2.
Type 1 decisions are irrevocable. We need to gather as much information as possible before we make them. They are a one-way door. Once you pass through, there is no going back.
Fortunately, most decisions are type 2 decisions— swinging doors. We can pass through and then return if we don’t like what we see.
The trick is to identify the type of decisions we are making.
When faced with a Type 1 decision, we should confirm our planning assumptions and have all the facts before committing.
But for type 2 decisions, don’t let great enough be the enemy of good enough. Make a decision.
Have a bias for action.
Until next week,
Keep Walking Point
John
If you have any questions or feedback about today's newsletter or if you'd just like to reach out, email me at john@walkingpoint.org. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
